Explaining COVID-19 contagion in Portuguese municipalities using spatial autocorrelation models

This paper investigates the pattern of COVID-19 contagion in Portuguese municipalities from March 23rd to April 5th (the exponential phase). We have recurred spatial autocorrelation models discuss how conglomeration highly infectious spaces has also contributed infecting neighbouring municipalities. used several indicators for number individuals rates infectious. As explicative variables, additionally proximity, we considered population density, share elderly as well length municipal perimeter/border. Our results show that dense tended contaminate close areas. Lengthier perimeters showed a positive effect on contagious given municipality.